Deep Learning and Climate Change | Article Analysis
neural networks ai machine learning

As debates about climate change quite literally heat-up, many people are interested in the factors, behaviours and events driving these changes. As data scientists the use of machine learning models are becoming more and more relevant for the completion of new types of analytical tasks, and as technologies like Neural Network Models lead these advancements, it’s important to understand the positive and negative effects of their employment to derive whether they should be incorporated into best practice for the future. 

The article, Deep Learning and Climate Change by Lukas Biewald, discusses the representation of Deep Learning models in the media, and how they are often misrepresented in terms of their negative impact on the environment.

The criticism arises from a paper called Energy and Policy Considerations for Deep Learning in NLP, which uses tables like these to compare the energy and costs of the use of different types of learning models. From the table, it is quite clear that NAS, or Neural Architecture Search model, emits extreme amounts of CO2 and has enormous cloud computing costs. 

The negative portrayal in the media and through papers like these comes about as a result of a focus on the most complex types of Deep Learning including Neural Networks which subsequently have the greatest carbon emissions. As such, with climate change currently a top-of mind issue for many people, it is easy to focus on the raw numbers without contextualising the entire scenario. In this case, Biewald argues that yes, NAS models can be cause for concern if they are employed by a great number more businesses, but at the moment, the technologies behind these types of machine learning and far too complex and unnecessary for the conduction of the great majority of business tasks, and hence do not warrant restrictions on their use.

 
Figure 1: a NAS, or Neural Architecture Search model, can take thousands of hours to train but most businesses don’t need models as complex as these.

Figure 1: a NAS, or Neural Architecture Search model, can take thousands of hours to train but most businesses don’t need models as complex as these.

 

In the bigger picture, this article is interesting because it takes the perspective of an industry professional on how non-professionals or the media can influence messages to suit a narrative. That is, it is always important to understand the context of what a message claims, and the implications that context might have on its broader application. At White Box, some of our most important work is identifying what clients’ data means in the context of their own business and industry, and how the information gathered from their data can be used in a way that is impactful yet doesn’t stray away from the true message of the brand or business vision. As such, like in this article, it is sometimes extremely useful to have an ‘out of the box’ perspective on the real implications of trends, data and other factors influencing business, or the use of Deep Learning, in this case, in order to create clarity and drive development in a way that is beneficial, rather than crippling, to longer term goals.

Figure 2: it is worthy of mentioning, when contextualised, training neural architecture search models can omit 4x more carbon that an average car over its entire lifetime


For the original article, click here.

For more data analysis and visualisations, click here.

Or, get in touch for a discussion about your data strategy.

CommentaryJack Sloman
Scientist Climate Change Appeal | Article Analysis
climate change data analysis sydney

There is no denying the evidence for climate change. But just how dire is the current environmental situation and are there mechanisms being put in place to curb these impacts?

climate change appeal scientists data analysis sydney

The image above displays the consistent rise in deviations above the global mean land and sea temperature average. The World Economic Forum discuss how 11,000 scientists recently came together to co-sign a letter in the journal BioScience as a result of these types of evidence, warning that further neglect can and will cause irreversible chain reaction events. Despite this evidence, graphs like these need to be taken with a grain of salt. As data scientists we know that correlation doesn’t always imply causation, but the seemingly exponential rise in global temperatures and global populations increased consumption of carbon based products and land clearing are very strong signs that we are in fact inducing a potential future catastrophe.


For the original article, click here.

For more data analysis and visualisations, click here.

Or, get in touch for a discussion about your data strategy.

CommentaryJack Sloman
Sydney lock-out laws - Data analysis
 

In February 2014, Sydney introduced new laws to curb alcohol-fuelled violence within Sydney CBD (1.30am lockouts and 3am last drinks at bars, pubs and clubs).

With the latest news that the lock-out laws will be lifted from 14th January 2020, we looked back at the impact the laws had on related crime within and just outside the designated zones.

 

Methodology

We looked at four key crime offences (domestic and non domestic violence related assault & offensive language and conduct), from 59 months pre lock-out (Mar-09 to Jan-14) compared to 59 months post lock-out (Feb-14 to Dec-18).

Data from Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.

We have contextualised by showing the NSW overall trend.

Interactive map

The analysis below uses an interactive map that we built. You too can dig for insights. Click here (best viewed on a laptop).

Analysis summary

Over the analysis time period, NSW has seen a decrease of 11.6% in these four offences:

NSW overall.JPG
Lock-out area - all offences.JPG

So with this in mind, we would expect our locked down entertainment zone to also exhibit the same trends, which it does (see the black border indicating the lock-out areas).

The green colour represents those suburbs that have shown a decrease between the time periods; so all of the Lock-out zones have seen a positive impact.

Red indicates an increase, which we can see in Pyrmont, Double Bay, Zetland and the inner west areas around Newtown.

Lock-out area - all offences - Highlight Potts Point.JPG

Our tool allows you to hover over a suburb and see the underlying data.

So for Potts Point, home of Kings Cross, one of the main troublesome areas, we can see the huge impact the lock-out law had; a 56% decrease in these offences.

Whereas Pyrmont (home of the Star casino) has seen an increase of 51%!

Given that the rest of NSW has seen an overall drop of 11%, this is a huge discrepancy.

Lock-out area - all offences - Highlight Pyrmont.JPG

This hasn’t been the case for all proximal displacement areas, such as Surry Hills and Paddington, even though there is a large pub and bar scene.

Newtown (part of the distal displacement area) has seen an 11.3% increase, with similar increases in nearby Camperdown and Erskineville.

Another prime displacement location is the Golden Sheaf in Double Bay. This area has seen an increase of 25%.

While both of these percentages are large, the underlying volumes of incidents is still relatively small compared to Kings Cross and Sydney CBD in general.

Conclusion

The lock-out laws have had the desired impact on the zoned areas and although the displacement impact has been quite heavy in terms of percentage change, the overall volumes of incidents has decreased dramatically.

Here are the numbers:

The lock-out area has seen a decrease of over 6,000 incidents.

The largest volume increase was seen in Pyrmont of 434 incidents.

So the net gain has been very positive in terms of crime statistics but at what cost? With pedestrian traffic dropping by 80% and Sydney having to deal with a nanny state image problem, will the reversal of the lock-out laws bring back a nightlife culture with lower crime statistics? Time will tell.

Side analysis

Whilst investigating the lock-out laws, we spotted an overall increase in Domestic violence related assaults throughout NSW. Although not a direct link to the lock-out laws, this was highlighted in 2015 as a Priority from the Premier (“Reducing domestic violence reoffending”), so this is rather concerning.

NSW DVRA.JPG

If we pan out, the number of red hot spots (% increase) is quite varied across the Sydney region, although keep in mind, that some volumes are quite low (we’ve removed any suburbs with less than 100 incidents):

Overall domestic violence.png

We took this side analysis a little further and calibrated to rising population figures in NSW but the numbers are still tracking higher.

“Unreported as a crime” context

It is possible that the publicity of the Premier’s campaign and movements like the #MeToo would have caused more people to come forward and report domestic violence, compared to the pre period.

We’re hopeful that this is the reason but will continue to dig for more data sources and reports to find out more.

For more data analysis and visualisations, click here.

Or, get in touch for a discussion about your data strategy.

Sydney lock-out laws interactive map
 

Methodology

We looked at four key crime offences (domestic and non domestic violence related assault & offensive language and conduct), from 59 months pre lock-out (Mar-09 to Jan-14) compared to 59 months post lock-out (Feb-14 to Dec-18).

Data from Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.

Highlight zoning includes the lock-out zone, proximal displacement and distal displacement areas.

We have also contextualised by showing the NSW overall trend.

 

Interactive map

Hover over any suburb to see the volume of crimes before and after the lock-out laws were introduced.

Use the filters at the top to highlight zoning and see specific crimes.

You can also pan and zoom in/out using the options in the map (top left).

If viewing on a mobile device, you can also use this link to view the desktop version.

 

Analysis

Using this tool and data, we have summarised the findings in this analysis.

If you’d like to discuss how we can help you use data for insights, get in touch or look for more inspiration here.

Technology & the NHS
NHS data analysis sydney


As the UK election race hots up and the challenges of the NHS come back into the limelight, the NHSX have produced a report detailing the incorporation of AI into the service and what impacts this could have.

NHS technology data analysis

The NHS is of crucial concern to a great proportion of the UK economy, and hence the developments of technology which improve the services and increase its staff capabilities are of equally crucial importance. Figure 3 shows exactly where the use of AI will come into effect, with diagnosis of illness consisting almost 50% of the total usage, highlighting the advancements in image recognition machine learning and the standardised digital format of data inputs for a range of diagnoses.

NHS employment of AI years data analysis

Despite the upsides present, it must be noted that the role out of newer technologies won’t happen instantaneously. A quarter of the proposed products are ‘very likely’ to be introduced to the NHS in the next year, but it will take at least 5 years for the great majority to be incorporated. 

Some other facts from the report include: 

  • 19% of AI solutions are being developed on algorithmically generated datasets (machines gaining insights from processes and using these insights to make further decisions about products) 

  • 44% of all GDHP members have a national or regional policy framework for the development and/or deployment of AI


For the full report.

For more data analysis and visualisations, click here.

Or, get in touch for a discussion about your data strategy.

CommentaryJack Sloman